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Rosneft in the Kurdish Region: Moscow’s Balancing Act

By Ahmed Tabaqchali. Originally published by Iraq in Context; re-published by Iraq Business News with permission. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Between February 2017 and mid-October, Rosneft signed a number of deals with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) that established for it, and by extension for Russia, a major position as both an investor and stakeholder in the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI)’s hydrocarbon resources and infrastructure.

The move was interpreted, especially by the KRG, as implicit support for the KRG in its bid for independence, especially in light of the latest deal signed following the reassertion of Iraq’s federal control over Kirkuk and other disputed territories. While there is an element of truth to this thinking, the deals are part of a wider geopolitical positioning for Russia as a major gas supplier to Europe and as an emerging power in the Middle East.

The deals provide Rosneft, and by extension Russia, effective control of the KRG’s Oil & Gas infrastructure, and a controlling stake in the region’s finances in more ways than one.

Within the oil space it has established this in three ways. The first was by providing USD 1.5bn in financing via forward oil sales payable over 3-5 years. This would be payable in kind from the KRG’s exports, until recently at about 550,000-600,000 barrels per day (bbl/d). However, the loss of the Kirkuk fields takes away about 430,000 bbl/d of production or eventually about half of the KRG’s exports.

This leaves the KRG with a tiny revenue stream after payments to International Oil Companies (IOC)’s, from which to make payments on forward oil sales of up USD 3.5 bn including Rosneft’s USD 1.5bn. A complicating factor is the repayment of other KRG debt, estimated at over USD 21bn by end of 2017, which will have to be factored into debt payment sustainability.

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Baghdad may Export Kirkuk Oil to Iran

By John Lee.

Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has reportedly confirmed that talks are ongoing between Baghdad and Tehran to export crude oil from Kirkuk to the Kermanshah refinery (pictured) in Iran.

SOMO Director Alaa al-Mussawi is quoted as saying that trucks would initially supply 15,000 barrels of crude oil per day (bpd) to the refinery, increasing to 25,000 bpd.

Kirkuk oil has until recently been exported to international markets via the Ceyhan port in Turkey.

(Source: Kurdistan 24)

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EITI Suspends Iraq Membership: A Serious Setback

By Ahmed Mousa Jiyad.

Any opinions expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

EITI Suspends Iraq Membership: A Serious Setback For Transparency That Should Be Addressed Promptly And Effectively

The recent decision by the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI) to suspend Iraq’s status as a compliant country could, under the already fragile transparency environment in the Iraqi petroleum sector, deal a devastating long-term blow to transparency and wash away ten years of Iraqi efforts.

Therefore, it is a matter of urgency that the Parliament and the Council of Ministers should intervene, forcefully and immediately, to oblige both the Ministry of Oil and the NS-IEITI to comply fully, effectively and in a timely manner with the EITI 2016 Standard, to ensure a positive validation in order to restore and enhance Iraq standing as a compliant country in EITI.

Please click here to download the full report.

Mr Jiyad is an independent development consultant, scholar and Associate with the former Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES), London. He was formerly a senior economist with the Iraq National Oil Company and Iraq’s Ministry of Oil, Chief Expert for the Council of Ministers, Director at the Ministry of Trade, and International Specialist with UN organizations in Uganda, Sudan and Jordan. He is now based in Norway (Email: mou-jiya(at)online.no, Skype ID: Ahmed Mousa Jiyad). Read more of Mr Jiyad’s biography here.

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Transparency Initiative Suspends Iraq’s Membership

At its meeting in Manila, the Philippines, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) Board commended Iraq’s efforts to bring transparency to its oil exports and encouraged the Government of Iraq to make progress on a number of other aspects of the sector.

While recognising the difficulties under which Iraq was implementing the EITI, the EITI Board concluded that additional work was needed to demonstrate adequate progress across the sector in implementing its Standard.

As a result, the EITI Board concluded that Iraq had made inadequate progress overall. Iraq will have 18 months to carry out corrective actions and will be temporarily suspended in the meantime.

Iraq – “potential has yet to be fulfilled”

Efforts to bring transparency to the state’s oil exports, which account for over 90% of budget revenue, have made Iraq a frontrunner in shaping the EITI Standard globally. Iraq was the first country in the EITI to reconcile oil sales on a cargo-by-cargo basis and remains one of the few EITI countries to do so.

Iraq’s publication of information on physical crude oil flows in the domestic market, including supplies to refineries and power generators, is unique in the region. Continued efforts are particularly noteworthy given the security situation in the country over the last decade and the broader political and regional circumstances.

In making its decision, the EITI Board noted that the Iraqi Federal Government will need to lead efforts to extend the transparency that it has brought to its oil sales to the rest of the sector. “Although there is strong potential for the EITI to have a positive impact in the governance of Iraq’s oil and gas sector”, the Board concluded, “this potential has yet to be fulfilled”.

Referring to Iraq’s Validation, Fredrik Reinfeldt, Chair of the EITI, said:

“Iraq has, in many ways, been a regional pioneer in implementing the EITI Standard. We have seen some progress, although there are still challenges that remain to be addressed. Government engagement will be necessary to generate reform and open up the sector.”

Moving beyond reconciliation of oil sales

The initial findings and stakeholder consultations that underpin the EITI Board’s decision show that Iraq has struggled to move beyond the reconciliation of oil sales to explain the broader picture in which these payments are made.

According to EITI Regional Director Pablo Valverde:

“The EITI has provided a platform for discussions among stakeholders that does not otherwise exist in Iraq, and has generated important debates. It is now time for the EITI in Iraq to build on the progress done on oil sales transparency to bring clarity to the whole of the sector.”

Click here to read analysis and implications for Iraq from our Expert Blogger, Ahmed Mousa Jiyad.

(Source: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative)

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Oil Exports Rise in October

By John Lee.

Iraq’s Ministry of Oil has announced preliminary oil exports for October of 103,730,680 barrels, giving an average for the month of 3.348 million barrels per day (bpd), considerably up on the 3.240 bpd exported in September.

The exports were entirely from the southern terminals, with no exports from Kirkuk via Ceyhan.

Revenues for the month were $5.455 billion at an average price of $52.595 per barrel.

September export figures can be found here.

(Source: Ministry of Oil)

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Will Iraqi-Saudi Rapprochement Undermine Iran’s Role in Iraq?

By Mustafa Saadoun for Al Monitor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News. 

Iraqi-Saudi relations have witnessed significant improvement after years of boycott that had worsened during Nouri al-Maliki’s rule between 2006 and 2014. On Oct. 22, the establishment of a Coordination Council between the two countries was announced.

Iran, which is seeking to expand its influence in Iraq, might not like this rapprochement, especially following the latest meeting between Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud that took place with US blessing when US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson attended the launching of the Coordination Council.

Former Iraqi Ambassador to the US Lukman Faily told Al-Monitor, “Over the past years, the US attempted to take serious steps to mend ties between Iraq and Saudi Arabia. With this development, the region’s geopolitics will change.”

Saudi newspaper Asharq al-Awsat reported that the Iraqi-Saudi rapprochement will “curb the appetite of the parties that cause stability,” in a clear reference to Iran, which Saudi Arabia always accuses of “destabilizing the situation in the region.”

The results of the US-brokered Iraqi-Saudi rapprochement started appearing when Tillerson asked Iranian militias to leave Iraq, saying that the Iraqi-Saudi rapprochement will “counter some of the unproductive influences of Iran inside of Iraq.”

Hashem al-Haboubi, the deputy secretary general of the Iraqi National Accord movement spearheaded by Iraqi Vice President Ayad Allawi, told Asharq al-Awsat that the Iraqi-Saudi rapprochement might help Iraq break free from Iranian control.

The Iraqi-Saudi rapprochement does not include the Iraqi state in its explicit form only, but also expands to political parties that are at odds with Iran such as the Sadrist movement led by Muqtada al-Sadr, who visited Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates two months ago and headed to Jordan recently to visit King Abdullah.

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How Iran is Winning game of chess in Kirkuk

By Fazel Hawramy for Al Monitor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News. 

For now, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has pushed the separatist Kurds back and extended the power of the federal government once again to the areas considered disputed under the Iraqi Constitution. The Kurds are beaten. But the key question is how long this equilibrium will last.

The Kurds in Kirkuk and other disputed areas are disillusioned with the Kurdish parties, including the leadership of both the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). No Kurdish leader has come forward to apologize to their constituents for what went wrong, let alone attempt to explain what really happened on Oct. 15-16, when thousands of peshmerga retreated and left the people of Kirkuk to their own devices.

Meanwhile, the Turkmens in Kirkuk and nearby Tuz Khormato have become united through their opposition to the Sept. 25 Kurdish independence referendum and other perceived Kurdish excesses. But as the effect of Baghdad’s victory over the Kurds wears off, the old animosities and the regional states’ rivalries in Kirkuk are bound to resurface.

The Turkmens are divided along sectarian lines. The Shiite-dominated Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) that are protecting the Shiite Turkmens in the south of Kirkuk and the city of Tuz Khormato — the major Kurdish-Turkmens flashpoint — are directly linked to Tehran. On the other hand, most of the Sunni Turkmens in Kirkuk rally behind the Iraqi Turkmen Front, which has strong links to Ankara.

“There is no denying that, more than all groups in Iraq, the Turkmens are supported by Turkey. We are part of the Turkish people,” Ali Mahdi, the spokesperson for the Iraqi Turkmen Front told Niqash in May. “And we have always called upon them [Turkey] to play a role in developments taking place here.”

In 2014, the Turkmens failed to agree on a Turkmen candidate for the head of the Kirkuk provincial council, which could have prevented the Aug. 29 inclusion of the disputed city in the Sept. 25 Kurdish independence referendum. In parallel, the deep-rooted tension between the Kurds and the Turkmens, particularly in Tuz Khormato, has intensified as the threat of the Islamic State (IS) has receded.

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Iraq Increases Oil Export Capacity

By John Lee.

Oil Minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi [Allibi, Luiebi] (pictured) has said that oil export capacity at Iraq’s southern ports has increased to 4.6 million barrels per day (bpd), following the completion of its fifth single floating terminal.

The new terminal has a capacity of 900,000 bpd.

The Minister said Iraq will continue to expand its production and export capacity.

(Source: Ministry of Oil)

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Three-year Strategic Plan for Basra Oil and Gas

Provincial Council of Basra formulates strategic plan to contribute to effective management of the oil and gas sector

The southern Governorate of Iraq, Basra, now has a three-year strategic plan for oil and gas.

As a key pillar of Basra’s economy, this industry is supposed to employ thousands of workers and generate billions of dollars of revenue each year. Unfortunately, the industry is falling short of its expected developmental goals.

It has been assessed that the industry’s performance can be boosted through sound management and improved capacity and expertise. The Provincial Council of Basra is seeking to address this issue, in part, with its Committee for Oil and Gas.

Highlights

  • Starting November 2016, UNDP worked closely with the Committee for Oil and Gas to develop the strategic plan
  • Amongst objectives of the plan is to generate employment, whilst considering related social and environmental impacts
  • The industry’s performance can be boosted through sound management and improved capacity and expertise

To this end, the Committee has formulated a strategic plan with the support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). This support was channeled under the Basra Compact agreement signed between UNDP and the Governorate of Basra in 2015 to provide the Governorate with technical assistance in major thematic areas, including strategic planning.

Starting November 2016, UNDP worked closely with the Committee for Oil and Gas to develop the strategic plan. In July 2017, the Provincial Council of Basra endorsed the first draft, and approved the final version for printing in September 2017. Hundreds of copies were distributed to relevant stakeholders in October 2017.

Chairman of the Committee for Oil and Gas, Mr. Ali Shaddad Al Fares, said:

“We believe in the importance of strategic planning to achieve comprehensive, sustainable development in all aspects of life. Given that oil and gas are the most important sources of Iraq’s national wealth at the present time, the Committee for Oil and Gas had to follow a scientific methodology in planning for the future of Basra.”

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Weir wins Maintenance Contract at Zubair Oilfield

Weir Oil & Gas Dubai has reportedly been awarded a contract with Eni Iraq BV to provide global maintenance services for gas compressor units and associated equipment located in the three Initial Production Facilities (IPF) plants in the Zubair oil fields in Southern Iraq.

The gas compressor units are comprised of gas engines, gas compressors, and relevant associated equipment. There are 30 compressors in total, with 18 at Hammar, six at Zubair and six at Rafidya. Weir engineers are now responsible for maintenance servicing of all compressors at each of the sites.

Ronan Le Gloahec (pictured), EMEA Regional Managing Director of Weir Oil & Gas, said:

“Weir was selected for this contract due to our experience in Iraq, local footprint and know-how of the specific rotating machines and Field Maintenance methodologies.

“In addition to our state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities in Dubai and service centre in Abu Dhabi, we have a dedicated service centre in Basra, the first facility in Iraq has both API and ISO licenses.”

(Source: Oilfield Technology)