Genel Updates on Oil Reserves

By John Lee.

Genel Energy has announced the completion of competent person’s reports (‘CPRs’) relating to the oil reserves and resources at Taq Taq, Bina Bawi, and Miran.

McDaniel and Associates have updated the CPR relating to the Taq Taq field (Genel 44% working interest, joint operator).

RPS Energy Consultants Ltd. (‘RPS’), as part of its work on the updated CPRs for the Bina Bawi and Miran West fields (Genel 100% and operator), has finalised its evaluation of the oil resources at both fields.

Murat Özgül (pictured), Chief Executive of Genel, said:

“The 40% replacement of 1P reserves at Taq Taq follows the success of well TT-29w, and reflects the stability in cash-generative production that we have seen from the field in the second half of 2017. The significant increase in high-value Bina Bawi 2C oil resources offers a tangible opportunity for near-term value creation.”

Taq Taq oil reserves

Taq Taq gross 2P reserves as of 31 December 2017 are estimated by McDaniel at 54.7 MMbbls, compared to 59.1 MMbbls as of 28 February 2017, with the difference being production in the intervening period, partly offset by a small upward technical revision.

The CPR results in a 12% reserves replacement for 2P and 40% reserves replacement at the higher confidence 1P level as a result of stabilising production and the integration of well TT-29w. A reconciliation from the reserves reported in the CPR released in February 2017 to the updated estimates in the CPR published today, is shown in the following table:

Gross oil reserves (MMbbls – McDaniel)

1P

2P

3P

28 February 2017

25.8

59.1

95.0

Production

(5.0)

(5.0)

(5.0)

Technical revisions

2.0

0.6

0.1

31 December 2017

22.8

54.7

90.1

Bina Bawi and Miran oil resources

Bina Bawi gross 2C light (c.45◦ API) oil resources as of 31 December 2017 are estimated by RPS at 37.1 MMbbls, compared to 13 MMbbls as of July 2013. The increase reflects higher recovery factors than initially estimated due to integrating learnings from analogue carbonate fields of similar oil quality. As the high-quality Bina Bawi oil is in close proximity to export infrastructure, the field represents a potentially attractive near-term development candidate for the Company.

Miran West gross 2C heavy (c.15◦ API) oil resources as of 31 December 2017 are estimated by RPS at 23.7 MMbbls, compared to 52 MMbbls as of April 2013. Volumes have reduced as RPS has adjusted its view on the oil water contact uncertainty range and also adjusted its view on reservoir properties, including data from MW-5 drilled in July 2013.

Because of field experience at Taq Taq, Genel management has taken the view that it is unlikely that any matrix will contribute to primary depletion at Miran and, as such, has taken a more conservative view and will only record 18.5 MMbbls of viable 2C contingent resources at the field.

Gross 2C Contingent Resources oil (MMbbls – RPS)

2013

31 December 2017

Bina Bawi

12.9

37.1

Miran West

52.0

23.7

Appendix

Summary of Contingent Resources – Development unclarified (Gross 100% working interest basis) attributable to the Bina Bawi and Miran West fields as of 31 December 2017.

Gross (100% WI) Contingent Resources

Gross (100% WI) Contingent Resources

Bina Bawi

Oil (MMbbls – RPS)

Miran West

Oil (MMbbls – RPS)

1C

15.2

1C

6.1

2C

37.1

2C

23.7

3C

78.4

3C

67.6

(Source: Genel Energy)

Bina Bawi and Miran West gas resource update

Genel Energy has announced that RPS Energy Consultants, as part of its work on the updated competent person’s reports (‘CPRs’) for the Bina Bawi and Miran West fields (Genel 100% and operator), has finalised its evaluation of the contingent gas resources at both assets:

  • The RPS evaluation confirms a significant upgrade to the combined 2C gross (100% working interest (‘WI’)) raw gas resource estimate for the Bina Bawi and Miran West fields:
    • The RPS assessment of the combined gross 2C raw gas resource for both fields now stands at 14,792 Bscf, a figure which excludes associated condensate volumes attributable to the upstream partners
    • The RPS assessment of the combined gross 2C condensate volumes potentially recovered from raw gas production at both fields totals 137 MMstb
    • As at end-2016 Genel’s reported 2C resources included net raw gas resources from Miran and Bina Bawi totalling 1,421 MMboe1, which related to Genel’s respective 80% and 75% interests in the Bina Bawi and Miran PSCs at that time
    • In February 2017 the Company increased its interest in both PSCs to 100%, resulting in a combined pro-forma end-2016 Genel 2C resource of 1,815 MMboe (10,530 Bscf2)
    • The 2018 RPS estimates of combined 2C resources from both fields have increased c.40% compared to the pro-forma end-2016 2C resource
  • The revised Bina Bawi 1C gross raw gas resource estimate is more than 50% higher than the gas volume agreed to for the field under the Gas Lifting Agreement (‘GLA’). The revised Miran West 1C gross raw gas resource estimate is in line with the volume agreed to for the field in the GLA

A comparison of the revised 2C gross contingent resource numbers for both fields and the Company’s end-2016 number, which was based on the 2013 RPS reports plus the addition of the Company’s assessment of non-hydrocarbon gases, is summarised in the following table. Further detail is provided in an appendix to this announcement.

Gross (100% WI) 2C Contingent Resources Raw gas (Bscf)

Previous

Revised

change

Bina Bawi

6,472

8,230

27%

Miran West

3,688

6,562

78%

RPS’s updated analysis of the raw gas resources on both fields has benefitted from updated reservoir simulation modelling combined with analogue analysis jointly created and developed by the Company and Baker Hughes since the original reports were produced. As a consequence, the recovery factors for the gas reservoirs in both fields have, in most resource categories, been increased to reflect a better understanding of potential reservoir performance. Further appraisal activity, which is currently under consideration, could help refine reservoir performance and these recovery factor estimates.

Volumes agreed under the GLAs total 2,800 Bscf from Bina Bawi, and 2,000 Bscf from Miran West over a 12 year period, consisting of a two year build-up period and 10 year plateau period. The revised 2C and 3C raw gas resources for both fields significantly exceed these volumes. Following the completion of the upstream field development plans (‘FDPs’), sufficient progress on the midstream facilities and sales gas export route, and subsequent final investment decision, the Company expects that a percentage of the contingent raw gas resources will be converted to reserves, dependent on the volumes set to be produced under the FDPs.

 

The upstream FDPs for the gas and oil fields in the Bina Bawi and Miran PSCs, which are being carried out by Baker Hughes, are expected to be completed shortly.

RPS is continuing its evaluation of the oil bearing reservoirs at both fields, the results of which will be announced once finalised.

Appendix

Summary of Contingent Resources – Development unclarified (Gross 100% working interest basis) attributable to the Bina Bawi and Miran West fields as of 31 December 2017

Gross (100% WI) Contingent Resources

Gross (100% WI) Contingent Resources

BINA BAWI

Raw gas (Bscf)

Condensate (MMstb)

MIRAN WEST

Raw gas (Bscf)

Condensate (MMstb)

1C

4,651

34

1C

1,967

18

2C

8,230

62

2C

6,562

75

3C

13,036

99

3C

18,429

233

1 Genel figure based on the 2013 RPS reports plus the addition of the Company’s assessment of non-hydrocarbon gases

2 Based on a conversion factor of 5.8 MMscf/bbl

(Source: Genel Energy)