Iran questions Iraq’s Promise to Import Oil

By Adnan Abu Zeed for Al Monitor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Iran questions Iraq’s promise to import oil despite sanctions

Iran and Iraq have quite different views of their relationship status, with Tehran claiming it’s been jilted and Baghdad declaring it’s being faithful.

Iranian Minister of Petroleum Bijan Zangeneh (pictured) surprised Iraqi officials Feb. 7 when he very publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Iraq “reversing some oil agreements, and refusing to invest in the border oil fields and to pay Iran its [$2 billion in] debts.”

He indicated that “Baghdad’s commitment to the US sanctions has prompted [Iraq] to revoke minor agreements, such as the Kirkuk deal, under which we traded 11,000 barrels of oil a day.”

Iraq ended that deal in November under US pressure. The United States has imposed sanctions on Tehran and countries that defy those sanctions by continuing to do business with Iran.

Zangeneh’s remarks contradict the outcome of his meeting in Baghdad with Iraqi Oil Minister Thamir Ghadhban last month, when they agreed that Iraq would import gas from Iran and develop some border fields.

Click here to read the full story.

What Iran’s Revolution meant for Iraq

By Bruce Riedel, Brookings Institution.

The opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

What Iran’s Revolution meant for Iraq

The collapse of the shah’s government in Iran in early 1979 impacted the entire world but no country was more affected than Iraq.

Saddam Hussein’s regime was the shah’s deadly enemy and had hosted the Ayatollah Khomeini in exile for years, but Saddam became the top foreign target of the revolutionaries in Tehran once they took power.

Many countries were caught off balance by the Iranian revolution but none got it as wrong as Iraq. Its response—war—led to decades of conflict which have yet to end.

The full report can be read here.

(Source: Brookings Institution)

Jordan and Iraq plan to Increase Trade

By John Lee.

King Abdullah II of Jordan arrives in Baghdad today on an official visit to Iraq for talks with President Barham Salih, and Prime Minister Adil Abd Al Mahdi and senior officials, with a view to strengthening bilateral relations and regional development.

According to a report from The Arab Weekly, the two countries are planning a border industrial zone with a possible 50,000 jobs. It would also facilitate exports of tax-exempted Jordanian goods to the Iraqi market.

In recent weeks, the two countries have agreed a series of measures to increase cooperation between the two countries, including a plan to finalize the framework agreement for the Iraqi-Jordanian pipeline which will run from Basra through Haditha to Aqaba in the first quarter of 2019.

They have also agreed to upgrade the al-Karamah – Terbil Border Crossing.

(Sources: Govt of Iraq, The Arab Weekly)

US Trying to get More out of Relationship with Iraq

From The Economist.

America is trying to get more out of its relationship with Iraq

US President Donald Trump thinks America is being ripped off. “We have spent $7trn—trillion with a T—$7trn in the Middle East,” he told a crowd last year, exaggerating slightly. “You know what we have for it? Nothing. Nothing.”

To right this perceived wrong, Mr Trump has long favoured seizing Iraq’s oil. But after he hinted at the idea with the Iraqi prime minister (who demurred), his aides admonished him. “We can’t do this and you shouldn’t talk about it,” said H.R. McMaster, the national security adviser at the time, according to reports. Still, Mr Trump may be getting what he wants from Iraq in other ways.

When America reimposed sanctions on Iran last year it gave some countries extra time to stop buying Iranian oil before they would lose access to the American market. Most were given 90-day exemptions. In November Iraq, which shares a long border with Iran, was given half that time to cut off electricity and gas imports.

As it negotiated for extensions, American companies made a push for Iraqi contracts. In December, Rick Perry, the energy secretary, led America’s largest trade delegation to Iraq in over a decade. “It was a quid pro quo,” says an oilman. “You give us priority and we’ll give you an exemption.”

Read the full article here (subscription needed).

Do Iraqi Social Programs improve Life Satisfaction?

Do social protection programs improve life satisfaction?

Evidence from Iraq

An extensive literature examines the link between social protection-related public spending and objective outcomes of well-being such as income, employment, education, and health.

Much less attention has been given to how government social protection policies influence individuals’ own sense of well-being, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (often referred to as developing countries).

Yet, the effectiveness and the sustainability of such policies and programs often depend on how people perceive them.

This paper examines the relationship between social protection programs and subjective well-being in Iraq.

The full report can be read here.

(Source: Brookings Institution)

US “struggles” to convince Iraq to cut ties with Iran

By John Lee.

US Energy Secretary Rick Perry spent the last two days trying to convince the Iraqi government that it’s in its best interest to cut energy ties with Iran.

But according to a report from Washington Examiner, his efforts have had limited success.

Perry tweeted:

“In bilateral meetings with Iraqi President @BarhamSalih, Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi, and Speaker Mohammed Al-Halbousi I reaffirmed that the U.S. stands ready to assist the Iraqi people in transitioning from Iranian energy dependence to using their full domestic energy potential.”

Iran is Iraq’s neighbor and an important supplier of the natural gas that fuels the nation’s electric grid, which is crucial to Iraq’s economy and oil industry.

More here.

(Source: Washington Examiner)

Iraq’s GDP to Grow 4.1%

By John Lee.

GDP growth in Iraq is expected to hit 4.1 percent in 2019, up from 2.8 percent this year, acccording to data from Moody’s.

The gain is based on an expectation of oil prices averaging $75 per barrel, and would be the highest level since 2016’s 13.1 percent expansion.

The National quotes the report as saying:

“Higher oil prices and output, as well as an expected increase in investment spending because of the improved security situation, have bolstered Iraq’s economic outlook … However, oil price volatility and potential further social unrest that could weaken Iraq’s economic infrastructure, as well as Iraq’s vulnerability to environmental risks, exacerbated by outdated infrastructure are continued risks to growth.”

More here

[In April, Fitch predicted 4.5 percent growth for 2019. – Ed.]

(Source: The National)

Putin may visit Baghdad amid growing Russian-Iraqi Contacts

By  for Al Monitor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News

Putin eyes visit to Baghdad amid growing Russian-Iraqi contacts

Lately, official Russian-Iraqi contacts have been intensifying noticeably.

On Nov. 23, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Iraqi President Barham Salih met behind closed doors within the agenda of the Mediterranean Dialogue in Rome. On Nov. 20-21, Mikhail Bogdanov, the Russian deputy foreign minister and special presidential envoy for the Middle East and North Africa, met all of Iraq’s key decision-makers when he was in Baghdad. The sides agreed to further develop relations and make efforts to hold a meeting on the highest level.

Russian officials’ increased contacts with their Iraqi counterparts have become a virtual necessity as a result of the changes in Iraq’s domestic politics brought about by the latest electoral cycle. The number, level, and scale of the meetings are indeed exceptional, and all the more so considering the constant foreign trips Iraqi politicians themselves make.

Click here to read the full story.

Sanctions Halt Iraqi Oil Exports to Iran

By Adnan Abu Zeed for Al Monitor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Iraq’s new Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has opted for the policy of his predecessor, Haider al-Abadi, by committing himself to the US sanctions on Iran.

A few hours after he was sworn in, Abdul Mahdi stated Oct. 26 that when it comes to said sanctions, priority will be given to Iraq’s interests and independence.

Nevertheless, Iraq is seemingly incapable of doing without Iran, given their close bilateral economic ties. For this reason only, Iraq demanded that the United States allow the country to continue to import vital Iranian gas and energy supplies and food products. Washington consented Nov. 2, provided that payments not be made in US dollars.

Oil exports from the Kirkuk field, however, are excluded. Iraq’s new Oil Minister Thamer Ghadhban stressed that his country will “review” its current oil exports to Iran.

Click here to read the full story.

Will new Iraqi Govt Resolve Baghdad-KRG Issues?

By Nahwi Saeed for Al Monitor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

President Barham Salih on Oct. 27 announced that he has developed a proposal for resolving the dispute over Kirkuk between Baghdad and Erbil.

Without going into detail, he said his plan focuses on the ethnic and religious components in determining its fate, ignoring the interests of outside players in discussions about the city’s future.

The recent agreement by Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites on the formation of a national government — with Salih as president, Adel Abdul Mahdi as prime minister and Mohammed Halbousi as parliament speaker — raised hopes among many Iraqis that the outstanding issues between Baghdad and Erbil might be resolved, but will the new leadership be able to deliver?