Category: Growth

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Iraq’s Economic Update — April 2022

Iraq’s economy is gradually recovering from the twin shocks of the pandemic and collapse in oil prices in 2020. Both oil and non-oil growth are on track to reach their pre-pandemic levels as oil production increases and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions restores domestic economic activity.

Fiscal and external deficits are back to surpluses as oil prices continue to surge. Growth in the medium term is projected to be driven by the oil sector as OPEC+ production cuts are phased out. The outlook remains subject to significant risks including uncertainties relating to the impact of geopolitical tensions, the ongoing pandemic, security challenges, and climate change.

Recent Developments

Iraq’s economy is gradually rebounding following the deep economic strains of the COVID-19 pandemic. Real GDP is estimated to have edged up by 1.3% in 2021, after a sharp contraction of 11.3% in 2020. The rebound was mainly driven by the non-oil sector which grew by 6% in 9 months of 2021-2021 year-on-year (y/y), underpinned by a strong performance of the high contact sectors including transport, accommodation, and retail sectors.

However, agriculture and construction contracted by 17.5% and 36.8% respectively, following severe droughts, energy outages, and the rising global price of inputs. In 9M-2021, oil GDP contracted by 4%(y/y) as Iraq adjusted its oil production as per the OPEC+ agreement. Headline and core inflation edged up to an average of 6% and 6.6%(y/y) in 2021, respectively, following the 23% devaluation in December of 2020 and the gradual recovery in domestic demand.

Outlook

The turnaround in oil markets has significantly improved Iraq’s economic outlook in the medium term. Overall growth in 2022 is now forecast at 8.9% as OPEC+ quotas end and Iraq’s production surpasses its pre-pandemic level of 4.6 mbpd. Growth in the outer years is projected to remain modest at 3.7% on average as oil production moderates.

Non-oil GDP growth is projected to converge to its long-term potential growth trend in part aided by higher investments that would be financed through the oil windfall. However, growth is forecast to remain constrained by the economy’s limited absorptive capacity and other inefficiencies.

Click here to download the full report.

(Source: World Bank)

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Breaking Out of Fragility: Diversification and Growth in Iraq

Breaking Out of Fragility: A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq

Iraq is at a crossroads. Almost two decades after the 2003 war, the country remains caught in a fragility trap, facing increasing political instability, growing social unrest, and a deepening state-citizen divide.

Amid a multitude of crises (including an oil price shock, the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent protests) as well as a culmination of poor economic policies, a lack of reforms, and an inability to tackle corruption, Iraq is having its worst annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth performance in 2020 since the fall of the Saddam regime.

Instability, a lack of jobs, corruption, and poor service delivery remain among the most important risks to the country’s long-term growth.

With every crisis comes an opportunity to reform. However, Iraq’s path to reform will be challenging and uncertain. Given current oil prices and the persistent drop in global demand for oil because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the country will have a tough time addressing the needs of its people in the short term.

It can, however, embark on a long but much-needed path toward structural transformation and reform, one that could leave its economy less dependent on oil and more driven by private sector activity.

The widespread protests since October 2019, which have called into the question the country’s current political economy, illustrate that such path for reform can no longer be avoided. Nevertheless, as this report shows, this path will demand persistence, and Iraq will face much uncertainty as it tries to address its long-lasting challenges and change the status quo.

This report highlights what Iraq can do to sustain future growth, but it also shows why the country has not yet managed to achieve high levels of diversified growth alongside peace, stability, and a better standard of living for its people.

The report also suggests strategic pathways by which Iraq can break free from this fragility trap, in which peace and stability can create the conditions for people to fulfill their aspirations, find private sector jobs, and thrive.

In this context, the report’s four chapters provide:

  1. an understanding of Iraq’s underlying fragility and political economy challenges and their implications for a diversified growth model;
  2. an analysis of Iraq’s growth characteristics and the country’s potential for and benefits from eco¬nomic diversification;
  3. a trade diagnostic and assessment of Iraq’s potential for trade and regional integration to create growth and stability; and,
  4. a review of Iraq’s agriculture sector, from primary agriculture to agrifood systems, and its potential to support economic diversification, growth, and stability.

Breaking Out of Fragility: A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq (Full Report in a PDF Format)

(Source: World Bank)

The post Breaking Out of Fragility: Diversification and Growth in Iraq first appeared on Iraq Business News.

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Iraq’s GDP to Grow 4.1%

By John Lee.

GDP growth in Iraq is expected to hit 4.1 percent in 2019, up from 2.8 percent this year, acccording to data from Moody’s.

The gain is based on an expectation of oil prices averaging $75 per barrel, and would be the highest level since 2016’s 13.1 percent expansion.

The National quotes the report as saying:

“Higher oil prices and output, as well as an expected increase in investment spending because of the improved security situation, have bolstered Iraq’s economic outlook … However, oil price volatility and potential further social unrest that could weaken Iraq’s economic infrastructure, as well as Iraq’s vulnerability to environmental risks, exacerbated by outdated infrastructure are continued risks to growth.”

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[In April, Fitch predicted 4.5 percent growth for 2019. – Ed.]

(Source: The National)